Dateline: July 4, 2001

Steve: I imagine that with nanotechnology it might be possible to create a liquid paint that once it dries could function as a display screen. The paint might either be subsequently plugged in to receive signals and energy, or simply be solar powered and receive wireless signals. Of course, it needn't emit light as our current display screens do. It would be enough just to have pixels that could change color. Might nanotechnology economically produce such a paint?

Tim: Nanotechnology will be bound by the same rules of economics as most other companies, selling various things to other people for a profit. Our experience in the Field Emission Display market has shown the difficulties of taking a great idea to market, ten years of development have yet to yield a product that can be sold at a reasonable price. As an investor, I would be very wary of anyone proposing a paint that functions as a screen, is self powered, communicates with other screens, tap dances and a whole host of other things. For each of those applications, you have a different set of problems, of lifetime, of stability, of interfacing, of driving the thing & so on.

If someone comes along with a plan to produce a display based on nanoparticles, that's fine. When they start adding all kinds of other functions before the core product has been developed, it becomes a problem. This comes down to the age-old fight between engineers and business people. The reason for this is driven by economics rather than science and engineering, and the need to have, at some clearly defined time-scale, a marketable product. Engineers and scientists will always give you something better in a few months time, that's their job. However, companies, and their investors, need to take a decision on how good something needs to be before you can put it on the market. As Guy Kawasaki says, 'Don't Worry, Be Crappy" - meaning get a product on the market in order to generate some sales income to pay for the fixes/improvements. You could argue that Microsoft takes this to extremes by getting an unfinished product onto the market as quickly as possible and then adding the patches at their leisure. If I were to be cynical, I could mention the premium rate lines for technical support in this context.

So the answer is, nanotechnology might produce such a paint, but you would probably have to commercialize the applications one step at a time. There is nothing wrong with looking further ahead in terms of functionality and applications, but at some stage, and preferably an early stage, you have to have some kind of product that you can move from development to sales.

Steve: Perhaps my imagination was running a little too far into the future. The first step towards smart paint would clearly just be a paint that could change color on command. Of course, such materials exist, but there isn't really a market for them. Thus, there is nothing motivating the traditional step-wise development of smart paint - unless, the whole product could be strategically designed in advance, based upon existing data stored in steadily shrinking computer chips... How long do you expect until we begin to see some revolutionary nanotech products?

Tim: Reading the NSF report on the societal implications of nanotechnology, it amazed me that so much of the thinking was linear, and based on our current understanding of technology. While nanotechnology may make some things better it will also create whole classes of new materials, and consequently markets, that we would be crazy to try to predict right now. Because of this wide spectrum of applications, there are some nanotechnology products that have been commercialized for years now, such as nanometer sized gold particles for labeling of oligonucleotides, lipids, peptides, proteins etc., and other applications still bubbling away in University labs that might bear fruit in 20 years. So that's our time-scale, any time from now, until sometime in the future!

Steve: It seems that the demand for smart paint (I want smart paint!) is relatively unimportant compared to the trillion dollar electronics industry or priceless medical industry - ventures that can afford lofty goals with roadmaps. Of course one must beware of snake oil and asbestos, but is it really futile to imagine what new materials and markets might result from the current trends?

Tim: There are so many possibilities it's almost pointless to speculate on the killer applications, it's like medieval theologians debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin - an interesting debate, but how do you verify your conclusions? The applications will surely come, but at the moment it's difficult to predict where from, simply because nanotechnology is a huge field and at a very early stage. We have identified several areas where we believe nanotechnology will have a significant, and early impact, but you have to keep an open mind, and stay in touch with the science, because things can change very rapidly, just ask any company who bought a 3G mobile telephony license!